Should You Lock Your Mortgage Rate In Advance Of Tomorrow's Federal Reserve Announcement?

The Federal Open Market Committee starts a 2-day meeting today in Washington.

The scheduled get-together ends at 2:15 PM ET Wednesday after which the FOMC will issue a press release to the markets.

Consider locking your mortgage in advance of the press release.

The FOMC meets 8 times annually and its adjournments are among the biggest market-movers of the year.

The Fed's post-meeting press release is a direct look into the mind of the Federal Reserve and Wall Street is looking for clues anywhere it can find them.

After its August 2009 meeting, the FOMC said in its press release:

Financial markets have improved, relative
Household spending remains constrained
Although weak, the economy is "leveling off"
Since then, however, credit risks have lessened on Wall Street, consumer spending has shown signs of life and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said the recession is "very likely over".

This is why tomorrow's FOMC press release is so important. Markets don't expect the Fed to raise or lower the Fed Funds Rate, but they do expect the Fed to shed light on its next series of moves.

If the Fed alludes to inflation and stronger growth ahead, mortgage rates should rise. By contrast, reference to slower growth ahead should help keep rates steady.

The FOMC is expected to leave the Fed Funds Rate within its target range of 0.000-0.250 percent -- the lowest it's been in history. However, it's what the Fed says Wednesday that will matter more than what the its does.

If you're floating a mortgage rate or wondering if the time is right to lock, the safe approach is to lock prior to 2:15 PM ET Wednesday.

Existing Home Supply Falls by Nearly a Year

As reported by the National Association of REALTORS®, the number of Existing Home Sales dipped last month, ending the metric's 5-month winning streak.

Newspaper headlines today are overwhelmingly negative on housing. You'd almost believe this year's housing recovery had ended.

That's hardly the case.

See, the other side of the Existing Home Sales story is that -- while the number of units sold did fall by 3 percent -- the existing supply fell by nearly an entire month.

To home buyers and home sellers, this is huge. Home prices are based on supply and demand and with supplies plummeting, it means that home prices are poised to rise.

Indeed, dwindling inventory isn't "news" to today's buyers. Multiple offer situations have been common since the start of the summer and, should supplies fall further, they may soon be the home-buying rule rather than the exception.

Since peaking in November 2008, existing home supplies are down 23%.

Home Prices Rise Again In July

As reported by the government, home prices are rising nationwide, up 0.3 percent in July.

Furthermore, versus November 2008, the Home Price Index has clawed back to unchanged.

The housing market appears to be holding its own.

However, we have to be careful about putting our full faith in the Federal Housing Finance Agency's data. It's somewhat flawed.

The Home Price Index is a national statistic and all real estate is local
The Home Price Index's methodology specifically excludes key housing demographics
As an obvious example, HPI only accounts for homes with Fannie Mae- or Freddie Mac-backed mortgage. Lately, the percentage of homes meeting that description is shrinking.

As FHA financing rises in popularity, Fannie and Freddie back far fewer loans than in the past. Furthermore, the HPI sample set also excludes newly-built homes and multi-unit properties.

Because of these exclusions, some analysts call the HPI incomplete. The same could be said of all home price metrics, however -- including the venerable Case-Shiller Index.

Therefore, what should be of interest to today's buyers and sellers is that all of "popular" home valuation models seem to be telling the same story -- home prices have stopped falling and look like they're beginning to rebound.

For a region-by-region breakdown of the Home Price Index, visit the FHFA website.