Home Inventory Plummets, Pushing Prices Higher

The supply of newly-built homes fell to its lowest levels since 2006, offering additional proof of a housing market in recovery.

Home supply is defined as the amount of time it would take to sell the current inventory of homes at the current pace of sales.

In October, for the 8th consecutive month, home supplies fell. Since peaking in January 2009, it's now down by almost half.

Lower supply leads to higher prices. This is Economics 101.

Furthermore, supply is expected fall into 2010. According to the government, builders are breaking ground on new homes at a declining pace, even as sales ramp up.

Builders are cheering the October New Home Sales report, but its the everyday sellers of "existing homes" that have real reason to celebrate.

See, as builders clear out their respective inventories and turn profitable, there's less reason for them to offer the types of over-the-top purchase incentives that characterized the last 12 months of selling.

With fewer builder incentives, the playing field levels between large corporations and individual home sellers.

And while this is happening, buyers are eagerly taking advantage of low mortgage rates and federal tax credits for buying homes. It's pressuring home prices higher overall.

Since January 2009, the average sale price of a newly-built home is up 6 percent

You've Got 15 More Days To Use The First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit

The government's First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit program expires November 30, 2009 -- a scant 60 days from today.

Considering it can take up to 60 days to close on a home, first-time buyers have 2 weeks at most to find a home.

Buyers not under contract by October 15 have little chance of meeting the November 30 deadline and, therefore, little chance of claiming the tax credit.

This is especially true for purchases involving short sales and foreclosures.


Congress passed the First-Time Homebuyer Tax Credit program as part of the 2009 economic stimulus plan. IRS Form 5405 outlines the program criteria which include the following stipulations:

Buyer may not have owned a "main home" in the past 36 months
The home may not be purchased from a parent, spouse, or child
Adjusted gross income for the household must be below $95,000 for single tax filers and $170,000 for joint tax filers
The credit is capped at $8,000 or 10% of the purchase price, whichever is less. And don't forget -- the First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit is a true tax credit. It's not a deduction.

This means that a tax filer who claims the full $8,000 and whose "normal" tax liability is $5,000 would receive $3,000 cash from the US Treasury when their tax return is processed by the IRS.

If you can't close by November 30, 2009, though, you can't claim the credit.

The clock is ticking. If you're planning to use the First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit, the time to act is now.

Existing Home Supply Falls by Nearly a Year

As reported by the National Association of REALTORS®, the number of Existing Home Sales dipped last month, ending the metric's 5-month winning streak.

Newspaper headlines today are overwhelmingly negative on housing. You'd almost believe this year's housing recovery had ended.

That's hardly the case.

See, the other side of the Existing Home Sales story is that -- while the number of units sold did fall by 3 percent -- the existing supply fell by nearly an entire month.

To home buyers and home sellers, this is huge. Home prices are based on supply and demand and with supplies plummeting, it means that home prices are poised to rise.

Indeed, dwindling inventory isn't "news" to today's buyers. Multiple offer situations have been common since the start of the summer and, should supplies fall further, they may soon be the home-buying rule rather than the exception.

Since peaking in November 2008, existing home supplies are down 23%.

Watch those rates...

As I expected, rates went up last week and currently changed the payment the of 3 of my current clients. Now,we have to look at lesser priced homes and/or go into other areas to view homes in our price range. Many times I have clients tell me that they want to buy because of prices being so low. What they also have to consider is the current rate they get their financing at. Here's an example, my client went from being able to buy at $280k last month, to now only qualifing for $250k. This is the only way she can keep the same payment.

I believe inflation was the cause of the recent increase in rates. Typically we see changes in the rates around the summer time for one reason or another. If you've got pre-qualified in the last 3 months and haven't spoken to your lender in a while, I highly encourage you to give them a call to confirm your payment once again. Don't be victim of payment shock with the new rates...